Do high petrol prices turn motorists into cyclists?
Posted April 27th, 2006 in Energy
The Pleasant Revolution has some thoughts and links on pertol price tipping points as it relates to cycling. It’s based on American attitudes, but still very useful to those interested in looking out for changes in consumer sentiment.
What neither of these studies show, and perhaps what is unknowable, is how the psychological impact of Peak Oil scarcity, both actual and prophesied, will affect cycling. I can imagine a tipping point of sorts, where the wealth of good reasons suddenly become overwhelming and the Mass goes Critical.
At the moment it looks like it’ll have to be a pretty high dollar per litre here before there is a real tipping point, the gradual increases and a market now accustomed to the idea of $1.40 has no doubt pushed consumer tolerance out a bit further. Maybe $1.50 in the new barrier, or maybe it will take a big spike in the price to shock consumers into making other transport arrangements.
technorati tags: cycling, bicycles, petrolprices, peakoil, trends
What others have to say…
I don’t think it’ll affect that part of the market where Masi fits in, and as you say, many of those ‘high end” folks have are already riding anyway, but we should soon see some movement in the commuter class.
This time around (when prices hit $1.40 here) we didn’t see the same reaction, maybe the Easter long weekend/Anzac Day/school holidays trioka occurring over that span had something to do with it.
But while I do think tolerances have been pushed out further, awareness has unquestionably gone up. So the tipping point may be here shortly when the two intersect.
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Gas prices are helping with bicycle sales some here, but it is insignificant to me because most of the people now cycling have always wanted to. Now they just have that needed excuse. We aren’t really converting non-cyclists to bicycle commuters yet. At $3.00/gallon, you’d think it would be happening, but I predict a real shift won’t happen until we start seeing $5.00 gas- which many experts predict is coming sooner than later.