Yep, this blog is well and truly dead, with all further blogging about cycling by me now done over at Sydney Cyclist, the social network built to serve cyclists in Sydney. Thanks for reading.

Follow the link to The Sydney Cyclist and sign up.

technorati tags: cycling, sydney, community

Australia is on a long list of oil producing countries that have already passed peak oil production. In our case, production peaked in the year 2000. While several new oil projects on the North West Shelf will see modest increases in domestic production for the next few years, by 2015 Australia will likely be importing 80 per cent of its oil. The annual petroleum trade deficit already exceeds $8 billion, two thirds of the entire trade deficit.

Belinda Robinson, Chief Executive of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, recently estimated that this annual petroleum trade deficit would increase to $27 billion by 2015 (PDF 830KB), assuming that prices would remain at US$50 a barrel. Given that oil prices are already hovering around US$80 a barrel before world production has begun to decline in earnest, a much more realistic figure lies somewhere in the range of $40-80 billion, equivalent to 5-10 per cent of current GDP, or double to quadruple the current value of our coal exports.

The major implication of peak oil for the average Queensland consumer is that fuel prices, and food prices, could realistically double or triple within the next several years. A petrol subsidy of eight cents a litre will make no difference to somebody who can’t afford to pay $3 a litre, or $180 to fill up the family car. Families in the mortgage belt of the outer suburbs, with little access to adequate public transport, will be particularly vulnerable (PDF 921KB).

While the electorate might today be clamouring for governments to build more tunnels and motorways to address the immediate problem of worsening traffic congestion, in the next few years when faced with the choice between filling up the car or putting food on the table they will begin asking politicians why there are insufficient buses and trains for them to get to work. The correlation between increasing oil prices and patronage on Brisbane’s already inadequate public transport for the last five years (see graph) is a very clear “market signal” if ever there was one.

It’s a race that Peak will win.

technorati tags: energy, peakoil, australia

The long awaited decision is in, and Floyd Landis has lost his appeal to the American Arbitration Association to overturn the sanction for his positive drug test from the 2006 Tour de France. The three member arbitration panel, led by president Patrice Brunet along with Christopher Campbell and Richard McLaren, was split 2-1 in the guilty verdict, with Campbell dissenting.

Landis.

I am innocent and we proved I am innocent.

Ummm, no.

For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth this was always going to be the decision though I’m sure Landis will continue to take this further. Unfortunately, in this day and age no one seems prepared to accept any umpires decision so it will continue for a while yet with Landis, the conspiracy theorists and rusted on fans never accepting the decision.

Oh, Oscar Pereiro is the winner of the 2006 Tour de France. Yay.

technorati tags: cycling, doping, landis

The Spokesmen.

The Fredcast.

technorati tags: cycling, bicycles, spokesmen, fredcast